PHILADELPHIA – Jalen hurts he wasted no time clearing the air.
The Philadelphia Eagles The quarterback spoke to his running back directly Monday night and shared the message with reporters. Hurts was disappointed by the 22-21 loss to the Atlanta Falconsfor sure But he wasn’t channeling that disappointment Saquon Barkley after Barkley went down late in the game.
“We didn’t make the play at the time,” Hurts said. “I trust him every moment. He’s a hell of a player. He gave us a big spark in those moments.
“It just wasn’t for us tonight. … We’ll come out of it better.”
The slump that lingered in the air at Lincoln Financial Field doesn’t have to define the Eagles’ season. According to some advanced analysis, he didn’t even start the loss that dropped Philadelphia to 1-1.
Let’s break it down.
After Falcons running back Bijan Robinson It was not converted on fourth-and-1 from Atlanta’s 39-yard line, and the Eagles got the ball back, up 18-15 with 5:38 to play.
His chance of victory, according to NFL Next Gen Stats’ Win Probability Model: 86 percent.
When the Eagles marched 29 yards down the field thanks to Barkley’s 26 yards on six carries, the odds continued to stack in their favor.
Philadelphia then faced third-and-3. Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore watched as the Falcons’ defense began to pile up the box. So Philadelphia didn’t move away from its most skilled player, but the team relied on him to move left to right and then roll right to catch.
Hurts’ pass hit both of Barkley’s hands before the running back lost it. Philadelphia settled for a field goal.
“Make that catch, it’s game over,” Barkley said afterward. “I dropped the ball. I let my team down today. I shouldn’t have put the defense in that position.”
Barkley’s responsibility was not surprising. The New York Giants‘, with the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, modeled accountability for much of six seasons with their division rival.
And yet, while Barkley dropped the pass, did he actually drop the ball in the game? His teammates and coaches say no, and there’s data to back them up.
Win probability models are just one metric to measure the impact a move has on the outcome of the game. The surprisingly minimal impact Barkley’s fall had on the results reflects how much more had to go wrong for Philadelphia to finally lose.
The Eagles had a 99% chance to win before the down, according to Next Gen Stats’ model, and a 94% chance after third-and-3. When eagles kicker Jake Elliott connected on the field goal to extend Philadelphia’s lead from 3 to 6 points with 1:42 to play, their algorithmic chance of success was still 85%.
While Saquon’s drop was costly in the Eagles’ MNF loss, it’s interesting to note that he only tipped @NextGenStats 99% probability model of eagles win at 94%. After FG, the Eagles still had an 85% chance to win.
Falcons 2 minute drive + Jalen INT continued the swing. pic.twitter.com/7vfV10o09e
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) September 18, 2024
A 70-yard drive by the Falcons in just 65 seconds cut that chance short. Falcon safety Jessie Bates III’s interception by Hurts with 27 seconds to play iced it.
“We’re all going to have things we want back,” Sirianni said. “We are all responsible for this loss.”
For 2 weeks, Barkley validated the lucrative Eagles investment
Barkley assured Hurts he would improve since going down.
“I could sit here and complain and resent it, or I could be a professional athlete and go back to the drawing board,” Barkley said. “I’ve made that move several times. I’ve missed that move before, too.
“I have to live up to it, recognize what I’m doing and I can promise the guys in this dressing room that I’m going to do better.”
Barkley is already exceeding expectations after Philadelphia signed him in free agency in March.
The NFL’s money trends have been skewed toward giving high value to running backs, especially on second contracts, in part because of concerns about the durability of veteran running backs and in part because of the belief that schematic creativity and Offensive line investment can offset the top runner. talent
In other words: some teams looking to save money somewhere believe running is their safest bet.
If a few good players combine to produce 60% of what a great player could be for 10% of the money, for example, many NFL teams will take that trade-off.
The Eagles bucked that trend when they signed Barkley to a three-year contract worth up to $37.75 million with $26 million in guarantees that essentially pays him $13 million each this year and next.
Barkley’s guarantees rank third at the position and his average annual value fourth.
For two weeks, it is validating this investment.
After averaging 88.7 yards per game in 14 games with the Giants last season, Barkley is averaging 124 yards since the breakout through two weeks with the Eagles, his best since 2018. when he posted 126.75 per game as a rookie.
Barkley’s 102 yards per game tops his previous high by 20 yards and his 2023 production by 33.3 per game. And while two weeks is a small sample, his production has held up against apparent playoff contenders in the Falcons and Green Bay Packers.
only Alvin Kamara he has scored more touchdowns than Barkley’s three.
And Barkley’s league-high 52 touches have called defensive attention away from Hurts, who is also re-establishing the art of the escape that helped fuel the Eagles’ NFC title campaign two seasons ago.
Hurts’ 85 rushing yards Monday night topped all of his games last season, his 6.5 yards per attempt also tops each of his marks from 2023. The duo works well together.
“Some things turn on when they need to, and it turned on,” Hurts said of his production. “Clearly, it wasn’t enough to get the win.”
Philadelphia will need a lot more firepower Sunday when they visit the New Orleans Saints (2-0), whose 91 points in two weeks are 21 more than the second ranked Arizona Cardinals. Hurts and Barkley will have to carry the load strongly, as they did Monday night, at receiver AJ Brown it works through a hamstring injury.
His teammates hope they will, even on the next chance to connect late in the game.
“We know he’s going to make those plays [and] he knows he’s going to make those plays,” veteran defensive end Brandon Graham said of Barkley. “We all rely on each other out there. We just let this one slip away today. It’s a shame, but it’s a good learning lesson for us. … As a good team, we’ve got to make sure we don’t let it slip away opportunities because that’s what happens: they hit you like that.
“We’ve also been on the other side when we came back because of other people’s mistakes.”